Just because something is obviously exploitable doesn't mean it's illegal—or profitable—to do it. What do the incentives tell us about what happens next?
1) will prediction markets give us non-pooled insurance? Eg instead of car insurance I bet against someone that I will not crash my car today
2) we need the prediction markets equivalent of Joe Kennedy. Superb guy to run the new agency tasked with enforcing insider trading because he made his bag insider trading
3) would the SEC consider what Ricardo did with bonds after Waterloo to be insider trading
Regarding "non-pooled" insurance: there could be a lending-club type model possible here. I just don't know whether insurers or insured parties come out better here as a result.
Regarding Ricardo: I'm not sure the story is true in full (my research turns up contradictions) but it wouldn't appear so - certainly not *this* SEC - based on the definitions in my article. But things like "death markets" are murky waters, which is why Kalshi claims to not resolve markets directly due to deaths. That's causing some interesting outcomes in Ayatollah markets.
1) will prediction markets give us non-pooled insurance? Eg instead of car insurance I bet against someone that I will not crash my car today
2) we need the prediction markets equivalent of Joe Kennedy. Superb guy to run the new agency tasked with enforcing insider trading because he made his bag insider trading
3) would the SEC consider what Ricardo did with bonds after Waterloo to be insider trading
Regarding "non-pooled" insurance: there could be a lending-club type model possible here. I just don't know whether insurers or insured parties come out better here as a result.
Regarding Ricardo: I'm not sure the story is true in full (my research turns up contradictions) but it wouldn't appear so - certainly not *this* SEC - based on the definitions in my article. But things like "death markets" are murky waters, which is why Kalshi claims to not resolve markets directly due to deaths. That's causing some interesting outcomes in Ayatollah markets.